Author : Bounmy Phommakone

Summary : This study was conducted to assess the impacts of climate variability on traditional upland rice production and farmers' adaptation mechanisms in the three villages of Luangprabang province. Specifically, it aimed to determine social and biophysical characteristics; assess the upland-rice yield potential with the changes in temperature scenarios, analyze the farmers' adaptation mechanisms to low rice yield due to climate variability, and assess and recommend agricultural upland-use policy to meet food sufficiency and food security. The primary data were collected through direct interviews with the respondents and focused group discussions (FGDs). The historical weather data 11 years were generated through the LARS-WG program, an additional 50 years of synthetic weather data. Both historical and synthetic weather data were used in the FORTRAN Simulation Environment (FSE) to simulate increasing temperature scenarios from +0 deg C,+0.5 deg C, +1 deg C, +1.5 deg C and + 2 deg C using the ORYZA2000 crop simulation model. Simulation analysis showed that as the temperature increases the yield potential was reduced. However, an increase in temperature, it was more risky to upland-rice yield potential likewise increased the CV values. Low rice productivity, self-insufficiency, upland-use policy, natural phenomenon and poverty were the five attributes of adaptation which led the respondents to develop their own adaptation mechanisms to low rice yield. These adaptation mechanisms were classified into two types : cultural such as indigenous knowledge handed down from generation to generation; and change in cropping system such as shift from upland rice production to cash and annual crop productions. Many upland rice cultivators were aware of the changing in the metrological factors and that the short and long term strategies and development plans of the government. Most of the farmers are in agreement with the direction the government is taking.