Author : Montenegro, Mirasol P.

Summary : The productivity of agriculture is highly influenced by the conditions of the natural environment. In particular, changes in climatic and weather conditions impact farmers' yields. Rainfall is the most important weather factor for successful Palay cultivation. Variability in the amount and distribution of rainfall is the most significant factor limiting yields. This paper analyses the rainfall pattern and its effect to Palay productivity in Caraga Region using the data of Palay Production Survey (PPS) form 4th quarter of 2007 to 4th quarter of 2011 and historical monthly rainfall data, through descriptive and statistical regression analyses. The result show that the highest variability of rainfall is observed during th 1st quarter of year when rainfall level is at its peak, and it also the quarter that recorded the lowest yield of Palay production throughout the year. Rainfall in the region is abundant throughout the year, but rain fed area are still underutilized due to the inconsistency and uneven distribution of rainfall throughout the months. The regression results show that excessive level of rainfall causes a decrease in Palay yield. Flood effect caused by too much rainfall has greater impact on irrigated Palay in the region. Regression results further show that rainfall variability and its negative effects have been experienced most in Surigao provinces. Due to weather uncertainties, most farmers in the region are risk-averse who prefer to invest in cheaper but low yielding Palay seeds, and this contribute much low level of Palay productivity in the region.