Author : Hoang Ha Anh

Summary : Mekong river delta and Red river delta are the two largest agricultural production regions of Vietnam which contribute more than 66% of the rice production in Vietnam. However, the projected changes in climate are considered to cause adverse impacts on the rice production of provinces within the deltas. This study assessed the vulnerability of rice farming provinces in Mekong river delta and Red river delta to provide information for decision-makers to design appropriate adaption and mitigation paln for the details. The result of the vulnerability index in Mekong River Delta showed that paddy farming in Ca Mau and Tra Vinh are most vulnerable to climate change. Provinces that have medium vulnerabilities are Bac Lieu, Soc Trang and Ben Tre. All provinces that have high vulnerability are located at coastal zones. In Red river delta, Rice farming in Quang Ninh is the provinces that has lowest vulnerability. There are three provinces have low medium which are Ha Nam, Vinh Phuc, and Ninh Binh. Thai Binh, Hai Phong, Nam Dinh, Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hung Yen have medium vulnerabilities, most of these provinces are located in coastal zones. Ha Noi is the one that highest vulnerability. The result for the simulation model of paddy yield under different scenario showed decreases in the paddy yield in Mekong river delta. Specifically, the yield of Spring paddy decreases 6%, Autumn paddy deceases 2%, Winter paddy deceases 4% and Autumn-winter paddy decreases 4% in 2050. In Red river delta, there are great increases of paddy yield in Spring season (18%) and 4% decreases in Winter season. The impacts of changes in temperature and rainfall can only be seen clearly during months of Winter when the temperature and rainfall are low, then the changes in climate conditions would cause stresses on crop cycle which will reduce the paddy yield.