Author : Trinh Quang Thoai

Summary : This study estimated the economic value of seasonal weather forecast and
meteorological information in coping with extreme weather events in Ha Tinh province,
Vietnam. It also analyzed the factors affecting fanners' adaptive and/or remedial
practices to overcome the effects of extreme weather events in agricultural production in
the region.

The results of the study showed that climate change exemplified by extreme
weather events such as drought, typhoon, flood, hot and cold spell in Ha Tinh province
had a serious effect on agricultural production. Among these events, drought had the
most serious negative effect to the region. These phenomena reduced the yields of major
crops such as rice, peanut, and corn of the province. The study also revealed that local
farmers have increasingly considered various adaptive practices to minimize the negative
effects of extreme weather events in their agricultural production. Five major adaptive
practices used by the farmers include changing crop varieties, switching to new cultivar
types, adjusting farming agenda, following up weather forecasts, and intercropping.
Among them, following up weather forecasts and changing crop varieties were adopted
by many farmers.

Factors affecting farmers' adaptive behavior to extreme weather events include
the farm size, gender, training attended, educational level, farming experience, and
damage level. Of these factors, farm size and training attended affected significantly all
the major adaptive practices of farmers. By contrast, household's agricultural labor,
access to credit and membership in local organizations had no significant effects on the
farmers' adaptive strategies.

Farmers in the study area have recognized the different explicit benefits of
following weather forecast news in confronting extreme weather events. Thus, many
farmers use meteorological information given by the weather forecast news to schedule
properly their agricultural production activities. The farmers' practices to cope with
extreme weather events based on meteorological information encompass changing
planting dates, adjusting application of inputs, and shifting harvesting calendar.
Educational level, farming experience and training attended significantly affected the
farmers' specific farm management practices based on meteorological. By contrast,
gender, damage level and household's agricultural labor have no significant influences on
farmers' adjustment of agricultural production activities.

Many farmers in the study area have been aware of the importance and necessity
of seasonal forecast bulletin in coping with extreme weather events in agricultural
production. Thus, they were willing to pay from VND 20,000 (US$0.9) to VND 60,000
(US$2.6) per month for this bulletin. Bid level, age, gender, annual crop income and
membership in local organizations affected significantly farmers' paying ability for the
seasonal forecast bulletin. The mean WTP level for seasonal forecast bulletin of farmers
is VND 46,700 (US$2.l) per month. Total estimated economic return derived from the
seasonal forecast in Ky Son commune is VND 450 million (approximately US$20.000)
per year.

The policy recommendations from this study are as follows: (1) broadening the
training courses on climate change; (2) institute policies that would promote
consolidation of farmlands; (3) integrate concepts of climate change adaptation into the
operation of the local organizations; and (4) further down scaling weather forecast and
localizing meteorological information in other areas.