Author : Mai Ei Ngwe Zin

Summary : This study examines the impact of climate change on rice suitability and yield in Myanmar using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. By applying the Ecological Niche Model through MaxEnt software, the research assessed rice suitability across four agro-climatic zones of Myanmar covering for three future periods (2024-2050, 2051-2076, 2077-2099). Findings reveal significant regional variations in rice cultivation potential under different climate scenarios. Under RCP 2.6, moderate warming and stable precipitation patterns generally support favorable conditions for rice cultivation. Conversely, RCP 8.5 forecasts substantial warming and increased extreme temperature events in the near term, with more localized precipitation patterns impacting regions such as Central and Southern Myanmar. The rice suitability analysis showed that while RCP 2.6 tends to support rice cultivation, RCP 8.5 presents both challenges and unexpected opportunities. Specifically, the Delta Region benefits from improved suitability, the Central Dry Zone shows resilience, the Coastal Zone requires effective water management, and the Hilly and Mountainous Regions face complex outcomes. Historic rice production data (2018-2019) were simulated according to the suitability scores to validate projections, indicating that while the Delta Region and Sagaing Division in the Central Dry Zone and Shan State in the Hilly Zone are expected to maintain or exceed past productivity, the Coastal Zone's suitability is less stable under RCP 8.5. The study also proposes adjusted rice crop calendars for each agro-climatic zone as a strategic adaptation measure to ensure future rice productivity in Myanmar.